Keep an eye on the Trump trade: Predicting the winner of the presidential election

Due to the Electoral College’s peculiarities, even slight changes in presidential polls in just a handful of states could signal a decisive shift toward either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.

And as the 2024 election enters the final stretch, polls could have more salience now. Election Day is Nov. 5, and early voting has already begun in some states, including in hotly contested Georgia and North Carolina.

Based on 538’s latest analysis of presidential polls, Trump now has the barest advantage in the race, with a 52-in-100 chance to win. Two weeks ago, Harris had a 58-in-100 chance to win. Still, 538 cautions that the race remains in a dead heat.

While Harris maintains a slight lead in nationwide polls, it has narrowed in October. In addition, her leads in the key swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada have also shrunk or vanished, while Trump has added to his leads in Georgia and North Carolina.

To be sure, many presidential polls in the last few cycles were well off the mark (and often underestimated Trump’s support). As a result, some election watchers have turned to betting markets for a more accurate reading, arguing that those who put money on the line have a greater incentive to make an accurate call.

But recent a big shift on top prediction sites like Polymarket raised doubts about their accuracy as a few deep-pocketed bettors appeared to sway the odds toward Trump.

Then there’s actual financial markets, which try to anticipate the election as much as possible given that the next president could put trillions of dollars at stake.

Duquesne Family Office founder and hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller pointed to financial markets when he was asked about the election this past week, saying they appear “very convinced Trump is going to win.”

Key market signals include the Trump trade. When the former president looked like the favorite earlier this year, the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, Bitcoin, and shares of Trump Media and Technology rose.

They retreated after Joe Biden dropped out of the race and Harris took his place on the Democratic ticket. But since October began, the Trump trade has rebounded.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of top global currencies, has rallied 2% so far this month. The 10-year Treasury yield has surged about 40 basis points. That’s as Trump’s tariffs and tax cuts are expected to boost the dollar and deepen U.S. debt, putting upward pressure on bond yields.

Bitcoin has jumped 12% in October. Trump has rebranded himself as a champion of the crypto industry after previously dismissing Bitcoin as a “scam.”

And shares of Trump Media, the parent company of Truth Social, have shot up 83% so far in October. The stock has already been on a wild ride this year, acting like a barometer of Trump’s election prospects. It skyrocketed following Trump’s first debate with Biden in June and again after Trump survived an assassination attempt in July.

But after Biden stepped aside, Trump Media stock tumbled, then sold off further last month as the end of the lockup period approached, allowing company insiders to sell their shares.

Other parts of the Trump trade have been mixed, largely due to factors beyond the election. Energy stocks, which could benefit from lighter GOP regulation, have been relatively flat after oil prices jumped then sank on the outlook for a wider conflict between Israel and Iran.

The financial and health sectors could also see less regulation under Trump. But insurance stocks slumped after UnitedHealth gave weak guidance in its earnings report, while bank stocks jumped on strong quarterly results.