The rise follows Trump’s announcement of an additional 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, as well as plans to impose reciprocal tariffs later this week.
“Obviously the tariff war is behind the rise; it just reflects more uncertainty and more tension in the global trade situation,” Marex analyst Edward Meir said in a note.
Tariffs may exacerbate inflation within the US, with investors now awaiting Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data due later in the week.
If the inflation data surprise on the downside, it may weigh on the dollar and inflate gold prices, while an upside surprise could push up US yields and strain gold, albeit mildly due to the market’s resilience and buyer interest during dips, Meir said.
Credit: Reuters
Higher upside
Monday’s rally marks the seventh time gold set a new record in 2025. With this, bullion has now risen nearly 11% for the year, having already recorded a staggering 27% gain in 2024.
Analysts believe that gold is now gaining enough momentum to reach the $3,000 milestone, as an escalation of the trade war is expected to propel demand for safe-haven assets higher.
“Gold is very clearly targeting the $3,000 level and the market is incredibly strong, almost relentless. Now its only a question of when it will scale the level and not if it will,” independent analyst Ross Norman told Reuters.
“One should expect to see retracement on profit-taking, but we never do, which reflects that the underlying momentum is very very powerful.”
Worry over tariff plans have already led to unusually high premiums for gold contracts in New York, resulting in large amounts of bullion being withdrawn from England.
Central banks are also playing a key role, as their gold buying accelerated by 54% year-on-year in the final quarter of 2024, when Trump won the US election, according to the World Gold Council.
Notably, China’s central bank added gold to its reserves in January for a third straight month, official data showed.
“With the PBoC resuming its bullion purchases in January, along with China’s decision to allow insurance funds to now invest in gold, such moves also appear to bolster bullion’s bullish momentum,” said Exinity Group chief market analyst Han Tan.
Credit: Reuters
(With files from Reuters)