Construction of Africa’s largest and greenest smelter project at Kamoa-Kakula is now complete. Credit: Ivanhoe Mines
Ivanhoe Mines’ (TSX: IVN) update on 2024 shows solid performance booking a $193 million profit, but an analyst says it’s marred by operational setbacks and an overly ambitious growth plan.
The company’s flagship Kamoa-Kakula copper complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo set record output of 437,061 tonnes of copper in concentrate and $3.11 billion in revenue. Adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization rose to $625 million from $604 million in 2023, the company said on Thursday.
The performance contrasts with Canaccord Genuity mining analyst Dalton Baretto recalling how a Jan. 2 fire knocked out backup power and delayed Ivanhoe’s forecast for this year. Baretto also critiqued the company’s $1.2 billion plan to expand the Platreef project in South Africa to output of 450,000 to 550,000 oz. of three platinum group metals and gold by late 2027.
“We note that these were more aggressive on timelines, capex and particularly costs,” Baretto said on a note on Friday. “We have adjusted our estimates.” The bank’s target share price slid to C$24 from C$27.50.
Ivanhoe shares fell 11% to close on Friday at C$14.97 apiece as wider markets dropped. The company is trading close to the bottom of its 12-month range at C$13.84, having achieved C$21.32 in the period. It has a market capitalization of C$20.3 billion.
After adjustments, Ivanhoe’s normalized profit was $386 million. This included a $164 million loss from the fair value of convertible notes and extra finance costs.
Kamoa-Kakula
Founder and co-chairman Robert Friedland lauded Kamoa-Kakula’s “extraordinary performance” in its record 133,819 tonnes for the three months to Dec. 31. “The completion of Africa’s largest and greenest copper smelter marks a pivotal moment, unlocking new potential for enhanced profitability, reduced costs and streamlined efficiencies,” he said.
Ivanhoe reported the complex faced challenges like higher use of imported and backup power. Still, its C1 or cash cost was between $1.65 and $1.85 per pound.
The site’s stage-three expansion is complete. The brand new, direct-to-blister copper smelter is to be switched on in April after a three-month delay caused by intermittent power availability. Similar challenges loom in 2025.
Kipushi flooding
The Kipushi mine, a high‐grade zinc–copper–germanium–silver asset also in the DRC, managed to hit design processing rates late in 2024 after initial ramp-up challenges. However, an electrical failure followed by flooding has now delayed further development.
A 344,000-tonne surface stockpile keeps mill operations running at design rates. But analysts warn that delays might hurt production later this year if development doesn’t meet expectations.
The disruption at Kipushi not only pushed C1 costs higher but also underlines the vulnerability of operations when critical infrastructure issues arise.
A debottlenecking effort is ongoing to boost processing capacity by 20%. They are also assessing an upstream dense media separation circuit to handle fines.
“For 2025, Ivanhoe is guiding to C1 costs of 90¢ to $1 per lb., well above our estimates,” Baretto said in Friday’s note. “We have updated our life-of-mine cost assumptions to be more conservative.”
Platreef
Ivanhoe’s expansion plan for Platreef aims to ramp up annual processing to 700,000 tonnes late this year with projected output of 100,000 oz. of three platinum group metals plus gold.
The second stage is projected to boost mining and processing rates to 4.1 million tonnes per year at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of roughly $700 per ounce. A third stage plans to further increase capacity to 10.7 million tonnes at an additional capital cost of about $800 million, with production forecasts of 1 to 1.2 million oz. per year at an AISC of around $650 per oz. coming online in late 2030.