Presidents Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a file photo of a previous meeting via Wikicommons.
United States President Donald Trump and Ukraine counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskiy cancelled a mineral rights and security agreement at the White House on Friday after a news conference degenerated into a rare spectacle of raised voices and name-calling.
The deal would have been a showpiece for Trump’s transactional presidency and another sign of the resource nationalism that’s swept the globe in recent years as countries transition away from fossil fuels. The scrubbed signing comes as overt U.S. support for Nato declines and Trump pushes for a stronger European role in its own defence.
Reports showed the mood soured quickly in the White House when Trump pushed for the mineral deal and Zelenskiy sought a security backstop. Then, Vice-President J.D. Vance raised his voice and told the Ukrainian leader he should “be thankful” for U.S. efforts, while Trump said Zelenskiy “was gambling with World War Three.”
“You’re either going to make a deal or we’re out, and if we’re out, you’ll fight it out,” Trump said. “I don’t think it’s going to be pretty, but you’ll fight it out, but you don’t have the cards, but once we sign that deal, you’re in a much better position, but you’re not acting at all thankful. And that’s not a nice thing.”
As Zelenskiy’s motorcade prepared to depart, Trump criticized the Ukrainian leader on Truth Social: “He disrespected the United States of America in its cherished Oval Office. He can come back when he is ready for peace.
“I have determined that President Zelenskiy is not ready for peace if America is involved, because he feels our involvement gives him a big advantage in negotiations. I don’t want advantage. I want peace.”
$12T in resources
While some U.S. estimates have put Ukraine’s mineral wealth at $12 trillion, little recent prospecting has been done and any projects would take years if not decades to develop. The country produces some titanium, gallium and neon, and holds zirconium, graphite, rare earths, lithium and uranium.
“The practical value of the deal is, however, more uncertain,” Alexey Eremenko, associate director at London-based consultant Control Risks said by email on Friday before the deal collapsed. “Even in a favourable scenario, getting these resources to the market would take years – quite possibly longer than Trump’s remaining time in office.”
The proposed resource deal with Ukraine would see Ukraine contribute half of future mining revenues into a reconstruction investment fund jointly owned by the U.S. and Ukraine. After the fractious exchange in the Oval Office, officials cancelled another press conference due after the signing and Zelenskiy ducked into his car without comment.
“The resource deal with Ukraine has clear political value for Donald Trump,” analyst Eremenko told The Northern Miner. “He remains interested in obtaining a clear foreign policy achievement early into his presidency, and the agreement that can be promoted as one such, giving the U.S access to vast Ukrainian resources fits the requirements.”
At a Cabinet meeting on Wednesday, Trump said that if there were American companies on the ground as a result of a minerals deal, it would be a “sort of a guarantee anyway” for security. Trump also said Russia had offered U.S. companies to invest in minerals in that country, a move the U.S. president said he was considering.
‘In flux’
“Everything related to the Ukraine crisis currently remains in flux – including security guarantees to Ukraine, and future developments on Nato,” Eremenko said. “We would also advise not to assign too much weight to Russia’s business offers – we’re highly sceptical – and more broadly, to its willingness to negotiate in good faith and compromise.
“So far, the Kremlin has adamantly stuck to maximalist demands that have high potential as dealbreakers, such as further territorial concessions from Ukraine or a cap on the size of the Ukrainian army.”
Europe has committed $132 billion in military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine versus America’s $114 billion, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in Germany. Trump again on Friday claimed incorrectly the U.S. has provided $300 billion to Ukraine.
The televised Oval Office exchanges showed how the U.S. is realigning its relationship with Russia to be more accepting of President Vladimir Putin than previous administrations. It followed separate meetings Trump held this week with French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. They urged the U.S. leader to back up peace efforts with security guarantees for Ukraine. Trump demurred.
