Markets weekly outlook – Data dump ahead as tariff concerns linger
The upcoming week will be a busy one with a barrage of high impact data releases scheduled. There are also lingering concerns around tariffs which are unlikely to dissipate soon.
President Trump said on Friday that he expects trade deals in the next three to four weeks which leaves the door open for further twists and turns in the saga.
Asia Pacific Markets
It will be a busy week for the Asia Pacific region with high impact data from Japan, China and Australia all on the agenda.
In Japan, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged for now, despite high inflation and uncertainty about U.S. trade policies. However, it is likely to indicate plans for rate hikes in the coming months.
It’s a busy week in China as a potential trade deal with the US comes into focus. Beyond that markets are eagerly watching for the first PMI data since tariff conflicts worsened. On Sunday, China will release industrial profits data, which will show if profits turned positive after falling 0.3% year-on-year in the first two months. On Wednesday, China’s official and Caixin PMIs will reveal how tariffs have affected the manufacturing sector.
In the Pacific region we have some inflation data for Q1 being released in Australia. The RBA prefers the quarterly data as it provides a more stable view of inflationary trends. Markets expect CPI to rise due to higher food and electricity costs, even though service prices have slightly decreased.
Europe + UK + US
In developed markets, it will be a huge week for US data. Next week’s U.S. data could raise recession fears. Consumer confidence is expected to drop as households worry about rising prices from tariffs, job losses, and potential government benefit cuts. Falling investments and wealth are making people spend less
A weak first-quarter GDP report is likely. A surge in imports earlier this year, driven by fears of tariffs, may have hurt growth. Consumer spending and investments in March likely kept the economy growing, but future quarters may be worse.
April’s jobs report will show slower hiring due to economic uncertainty. Layoffs remain rare, but slower job growth could slightly increase unemployment as more people look for jobs than the market can absorb.
Canada’s election has taken an unexpected turn after Donald Trump suggested making Canada the 51st U.S. state. The Conservative Party has lost support, while the Liberal Party has gained momentum under its new leader, Mark Carney, former head of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. The winner will have to tackle the economic impact of a trade war, as 75% of Canada’s exports go to the U.S.
Europe also has a busy week ahead with a host of high impact data releases. Euro GDP preliminary numbers for Q1 will be released on Wednesday 09:00am GMT time.
The week will come to a close on Friday with Eurozone CPI preliminary numbers. Markets are expecting a slight uptick on the YoY print to 2.5% from a previous print of 2.4%.
