What We Thought of Kinross Gold’s Earnings
Kinross’s K 2025 first-quarter adjusted net profit after tax of USD 360 million, or USD 0.30 per share, is triple the same quarter last year—38% higher realized gold prices more than offset 3% lower attributable gold equivalent ounce, or GEO, volumes and increased unit cash costs.
Why it matters: Guidance is reiterated. The result is better than we expected, driven by lower-than-forecast unit cash costs. We still expect 2025 attributable volumes of about 2 million GEOs, 5% lower than 2024, with the quarter’s volumes being 25% of our full-year estimate.
First quarter all-in sustaining cash costs per GEO, or AISC, of USD 1,355 are 5% below the bottom end of guidance of between USD 1,425 and USD 1,575, helped by the deferral of sustaining capital expenditure. But they will likely rise over the rest of 2025.We forecast 2025 AISC of about USD 1,530 per GEO driven by increased sustaining capital expenditure and higher gold prices. This is around the midpoint of guidance adjusted for gold being higher than its USD 2,500 per ounce assumption.
Key Morningstar Metrics for Kinross Gold
The bottom line: We retain our fair value estimate for no-moat Kinross Gold of USD 7 (C$ 10) per share. Shares currently trade at more than double fair value, which could be due to investors projecting spot gold prices of about USD 3,400 per ounce will continue.
Shares trade around 50% above our bull-case fair value estimate of USD 10. In this scenario, we assume gold averages about USD 3,800 per ounce from 2025 through 2027 before reverting to about USD 2,400 midcycle from 2029. These assumptions are 20% higher than in our base case.
Key stats: With a strong balance sheet, the gold miner has recommenced buying back shares as previously flagged but kept its quarterly USD 0.03 per share dividend unchanged. We think procyclical share repurchases are value destructive at current prices.
The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.
