Analysts Anticipate ‘Strong’ Costco Could Announce Stock Split Ahead of Earnings Report

Ahead of Earnings, Analysts Say ‘Robust’ Costco May See Stock Split

Key Takeaways

• Costco Wholesale is set to report earnings after the bell Thursday as it opens its next fiscal year, with analysts expecting rising revenue and profit.
• Most analysts tracked by Visible Alpha have a “buy” rating, but the average price target suggests they think Costco shares may be near their ceiling.
• The warehouse retailer recently said the late Thanksgiving and Black Friday weekend negatively impacted online sales.

Costco Wholesale (COST) is scheduled to report earnings for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 after the market closes Thursday, with analysts expecting the retailer to report rising revenue and profits.

Of the 20 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha, 13 have “buy” ratings on the warehouse retailer’s stock, while the other seven have “hold” ratings. However, the average target price of $977.95 suggests a more cautious outlook, with shares trading roughly 1% above the target price on Monday.

Analysts expect Costco will report a revenue bump of roughly 7% to $62.1 billion compared to $57.8 billion at the same time last year, according to estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. Net income is also projected to rise to $1.7 billion, or $3.81 per share, from $1.6 billion and $3.58 per share at the same time last year.

New Membership Fee, Negative Impact of Late Thanksgiving

This quarter is the first since Costco raised its membership fees in September, going into effect at the beginning of the fiscal year. However, company executives said last quarter that the impact will likely be weighted to the back half of fiscal 2025.

JPMorgan analysts, lifting their price target to $1,090 from $945, wrote recently that past fee increases have seen Costco quickly invest in things like higher wages and lower prices, minimizing the immediate impact of the hike.

When reporting its November sales last week, Costco said that Thanksgiving and Black Friday taking place a week later than last year, negatively impacted sales, especially online. However, analysts remained bullish following the monthly data as JPM analysts said Costco’s “core trends” are “ahead of expectations and quite robust,” while Oppenheimer analysts raised the idea of a future stock split as a potential “positive catalyst” for Costco shares.

Costco shares were about 1% lower Monday, but are up nearly 50% since the start of 2024.

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