Goldman says the bear market isn’t over yet. Plus, insider buying at Algonquin Power

Goldman says the bear market isn’t over yet. Plus, insider buying at Algonquin Power

Goldman Sachs is warning that the global equity bear market is not over as the markets are yet to see a trough in the momentum of global growth deterioration, a peak in interest rates and valuations lowered to reflect a likely recession.

The Wall Street investment bank said Monday it expects returns to be a “relatively low” 6 per cent through the end of 2023 as investors focus on the pace of monetary policy tightening and the consequent hit to growth and earnings.

“We continue to think that the near-term path for equity markets is likely to be volatile and down before reaching a final trough in 2023,” Goldman Sachs said in a note.

It expects the S&P 500 index to be around the 4,000-points level towards the end of 2023, implying an increase of less than 1 per cent from current levels, as it sees no earning growth.

Goldman expects earnings for the constituents in the Pan-European STOXX 600 index to slide 8 per cent next year, while forecasting a 3 per cent earnings growth for companies in Japan’s TOPIX and MSCI’s Asia-Pacific ex-Japan indexes.

The investment bank expects investors to start to price in expectations for a bull market next year.

“We expect markets to transition into a ‘Hope’ phase of the next bull market at some point in 2023, but from a lower level.”

— Reuters

Also see: Falling Q4 profit forecasts another negative for U.S. stocks

This is the Globe Investor newsletter, published three times each week. If someone has forwarded this e-mail newsletter to you or you’re reading this on the web, you can sign up for the newsletter and others on our newsletter signup page.

Stocks to ponder

Walmart Inc. (WMT-N) The retailing giant is warning of a tough environment for consumer spending, adding a powerful voice to the chorus of concerns about the United States economy. Yet, Walmart’s share price rallied 6.5 per cent last Tuesday, after it reported its latest quarterly financial results, and the share price is up 3.8 per cent this year. Why are investors so keen on the stock? David Berman has some answers.

Also see: With Black Friday ahead, investors look to U.S. consumer stocks

Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (AQN-T) John Heinzl has been a shareholder of the utility for more than a decade, and it’s been a terrific investment until now. Thanks to a combination of organic growth and profitable acquisitions, the renewable power producer and utility operator has steadily increased its asset base, earnings and dividends, rewarding shareholders with double-digit total returns. That all changed on Nov. 11, when Algonquin posted third-quarter results below expectations, cut its 2022 earnings forecast and warned that its long-term growth targets are in doubt. The stock has cratered more than 30 per cent since then, and investors are bracing for a potential dividend cut. As such, our columnist has sold the stock in his Yield Hog dividend growth portfolio, and some of his own shares as well. He says Algonquin should now focus on fixing two things: its stretched finances, and investors’ broken trust.

Also see: Multiple Algonquin directors buy during its recent dip

The Rundown

Boring stocks work better than you think

Last week we learned that Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of the now collapsed FTX Trading Ltd., ran an operation that resembled a frat-house beer-pong tournament more than a serious business. Why should you care if you’re a sensible person who has always avoided crypto? Because the failures offer up a good lesson in how investors of all stripes sabotage themselves, instead of prospering. Ian McGugan explains.

Also see: Good money after bad? Crypto still seems to be attracting punters

What $100 million fund manager François Bourdon has been buying and selling

For money manager François Bourdon the markets are made up of “good guys and bad guys,” and it’s his job to weed out the bad ones to help investors make money and sleep better at night. Mr. Bourdon, managing partner of Montreal-based sustainability-focused firm Nordis Capital, takes a “pragmatic” approach to investing through an environmental, social and governance (ESG) lens. He doesn’t shy away from energy companies, for instance, instead focusing on those that contribute to the transition to a low-carbon economy. The Globe and Mail recently spoke to Mr. Bourdon about what he’s been buying and selling.

The Screaming Value portfolio offers outsized returns

Norman Rothery takes a look at a successful but volatile value-investing approach and its hot and cold periods over more than two decades. He calls it The Screaming Value portfolio, and it’s posted returns of 13.3 per cent annually since 2000 – more than double the returns of the S&P/TSX Composite Index.

How to use the higher 2023 TFSA limit to play both offence and defence in your finances

Ottawa has made it official: the tax-free savings account contribution limit will go up to $6,500 in 2023. Rob Carrick has six ideas on how to use TFSAs to improve your finances.

This could be a great year for tax-loss selling using ETFs – if you avoid these pitfalls

Exchange-traded funds are prized for their low cost and liquidity, but they will also prove invaluable as a simple and effective tax-loss harvesting vehicle amid this year’s market rout. Under federal tax laws, investors who sell a particular stock, bond or fund to gain a tax loss must wait 30 days under the Canada Revenue Agency’s “superficial tax loss” rule. The rule is inconvenient for those who want to maintain exposure to a specific security. But ETF investors can easily satisfy the tax rule by buying a fund that is somewhat different than the one they just sold at a capital loss within their non-registered, taxable portfolios. Paul Brent explains.

Fleeing bulls set to amplify copper losses as demand slows

Climbing inventories due to slowing demand and mounting mine supply are set to hit copper prices over coming months. Pratima Desai of Reuters looks at why the outlook for the red metal has deteriorated.

2022 Lipper Fund Awards coverage

How Lipper Award-winning money manager Francis Chou keeps his conviction in volatile markets

How these Lipper Award-winning managers are working through the recent bond rout

Why these Lipper Award-winning fund managers think you need more real estate in your portfolio

Why now might be a good time for risk-tolerant investors to buy into emerging markets

Full List of the 2022 Lipper Fund Award mutual fund and ETF winners

Others (for subscribers)

The most oversold and overbought stocks on the TSX

Monday’s analyst upgrades and downgrades

Nutrien insiders buy the dip after guidance downgrade

What’s up in the days ahead

It’s well known that sell-side brokerage analysts are motivated to place more buy ratings on stocks than sells. But there could be a remedy to this problem in the works. Robert Tattersall will explain.

Click here to see the Globe Investor earnings and economic news calendar.

More Globe Investor coverage

For more Globe Investor stories, follow us on Twitter @globeinvestor

Compiled by Globe Investor Staff

View Original Article

Free weekly Newsletter

A weekly breakdown of forecasts and trends

Enter your contact info to get The Financial Gambits VIP Newsletter for FREE.

We hate spam as much as you, if you dont like it just unsubscribe and we will never bother you again 


Learn how the spacial web will change the course of our lives and how to identify companies that show the most promise.