Will Gold Rally? XAU/USD Price Outlook Amidst Economic Uncertainty
Most Read: Weekly Market Outlook: Trigger Uncertainty, Nasdaq in Correction & US CPI Data Ahead
Gold is feeling a bit of pressure at the start of the week as markets are cautious of what lies ahead. Rising tariff developments, recessionary fears and an uncertain geopolitical outlook continue to linger and cloud data releases.
Tariffs are Affecting Market Sentiment
If last week showed us anything, it is that market participants are losing patience on US President Donald Trump’s seesaw on tariffs. U.S. President Donald Trump signed an order on Thursday to exclude goods from Canada and Mexico under the USMCA trade deal, just two days after applying them.
However, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday that the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, planned for Wednesday, are unlikely to be delayed. This uncertainty around Trump’s tariff policies may increase demand for gold as a safe investment, and thus keeping prices supported.
Weaker US data has also sparked potential recessionary fears which has been reflected in the struggles by the US Stock Market of late. This should in theory prove supportive for the precious metal.
The slide in Gold however, could be down to profit taking to start the week as well ahead of US inflation data. The fact that Gold prices failed to find acceptance above the 2924 resistance handle last week may also be playing on the mind of market participants and thus adding downward pressure on Gold prices.
US CPI Data Ahead
There has been a significant uptick in inflation expectations over the next 12 months in the US. Signs of stickiness in US inflation data were evident in the previous print as well which makes this week’s release even more important.
Market sentiment is already fragile to say the least with another uptick in inflation likely to weigh further on sentiment.
The question will be the effect on Gold prices. Recent data releases have seen Gold prices react in ways market participants may not have expected. There is a real possibility that this continues with an elevated inflation print likely supporting Gold prices as it may lead to additional uncertainty and thus risk aversion.
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Technical Analysis – Gold (XAU/USD)
From a technical analysis standpoint, this analysis is a follow up from the technicals last week. Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Retreats From Fresh All-Time Highs, Bulls Remain in Control
Golds price action is throwing up mixed signals at present with last week’s bounce closing above an area of resistance, signaling a potential shift towards bullish momentum once more.
Gold failed to find acceptance however above the 2924 resistance handle giving rise to potential profit taking ahead of the CPI release..
Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, March 10, 2025
Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)
Dropping down to the H4 chart and you can see above, Gold is now firmly in a downtrend with bears in control.
The precious metal has made a fresh low but is trading at a key area of support at 2881 with a short-term bounce a possibility.
Immediate resistance rests at 2900 before 2913 and the all important 2924 comes into focus.
Support on the other hand is provided by the 2870 handle before the 2850 and 2830 handles become areas of concern.
Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour H4 Chart, March 10, 2025
Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)
Support
Resistance
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