JPMorgan raises its year-end S&P 500 target, but sees little upside left
Strong earnings and a resilient economy amid extreme policy uncertainty this year have uplifted JPMorgan’s view on U.S. equities. Head of global markets strategy Dubravko Lakos-Bujas raised his year-end S & P 500 price target to 6,000 from 5,200. The strategist cited an “encouraging fundamental backdrop” that alleviated investors’ concerns about tariffs’ impact on corporate growth. He added that results such as Nvidia’s confirmed that the AI theme and capital spending boom remains strong. “Absent major policy surprises, the path of least resistance is to new highs supported by Tech / AI led strong fundamentals, a steady bid from systematic strategies on improving volatility and momentum signals, and flows from active investors on dips,” Lakos-Bujas wrote in a note to clients. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 performance over the past year. Lakos-Bujas sees double-digit S & P 500 earnings expectations for 2026 lifting stocks in the second half of this year. He also highlighted the U.S. Court of International Trade’s recent ruling against the Trump administration’s tariffs as a potential tailwind for equities. “Going into 2H25, investors should begin to anchor equities to 2026 EPS growth potential … which is significantly higher and should help support the relative valuation case for U.S. equities,” Lakos-Bujas wrote. To be sure, Lakos-Bujas’ target implies just 1% upside from Thursday’s close of 5,939.30. “Elevated valuation could limit market upside, but it is rarely a sell catalyst on its own, especially if the U.S. continues to deliver stronger growth relative to DM peers and the AI story remains intact,” the strategist said. Lakos-Bujas had slashed his original year-end target from 6,500 to 5,200 as investors navigated the throes of the April tariff scare. The S & P 500 at one point traded around 20% below its record high set in February. However, pauses to the steep duties announced by President Donald Trump helped the market recover. The benchmark sits around 3% below its all-time high. Three other strategists featured in the CNBC Market Strategist Survey also raised their forecasts this week: RBC’s Lori Calvasina : to 5,730 from 5,550 Deutsche Bank’s Binky Chadha : to 6,550 from 6,150 Barclays’ Venu Krishna : to 6,050 from 5,900
