Key Morningstar Metrics for Nvidia
What We Thought of Nvidia’s GTC Event
We attended Nvidia’s NVDA GTC events in San Jose this week and remain impressed with the company’s march toward artificial intelligence supremacy in hardware, software, and networking, all with physical AI via robotics and autonomous driving on the horizon. We maintain our $130 fair value estimate for wide-moat Nvidia and view shares as fairly valued.
Not surprisingly, we heard little pessimism around the AI data center (DC) environment, as management touted the massive AI factories to be built by governments and tech and consumer internet leaders. CEO Jensen Huang stated that the “vast majority” of AI inference runs on Nvidia today, and even with a rising threat of custom ASICs being designed by hyperscalers, we still foresee tremendous demand for Nvidia’s solutions in the years ahead.
Nvidia’s Impressive Roadmap
We’re impressed with the details into Nvidia’s three-year AI GPU roadmap, with Blackwell Ultra (GB300 series) arriving later this year, Vera Rubin in the second half of 2026, and Rubin Ultra in the second half of 2027. Rubin Ultra is expected to have 576 GPU die within a single NVLink data center rack and should emerge as a workhorse with significant AI inference processing advantages versus prior generations. Nvidia’s medium-term revenue will rely upon an ongoing increase in AI capital expenditures among tech leaders, but Nvidia’s impressive roadmap should give these customers the incentive to keep spending on AI and replace its legacy GPUs.
Robotics and physical AI remains on the horizon for Nvidia, and a key takeaway from the event is that Nvidia foresees it as a DC opportunity. Nvidia “needs to build the AI to build the robots” and thinks robotics demand can support ongoing DC spending. We were modestly surprised that Nvidia announced its Issac GROOT N1 robotics foundational model as open source. However, we think Nvidia is trying to seed the robotics ecosystem and instead profit on the back end via cloud data and workloads.
The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.
