Editor’s Note: This analysis was originally published as a stock note by Morningstar Equity Research.
Shopify’s SHOP first-quarter results were in line with the company’s outlook. Revenue increased 27% year over year to $2.36 billion, compared with the outlook for mid-20% growth, while operating margin was 13.9%. Guidance includes current trends continuing.
Why it matters: Results look generally decent in our view, with upside to both our revenue and profitability expectations. Because the firm’s outlook is broad, we note high estimate dispersion, and that results versus FactSet consensus were ahead on revenue and slightly light on non-GAAP EPS.
Good first quarter demand was driven by merchant additions, international expansion, success in offline sales, and overall gross merchandise value expansion. Continued strength is notable, especially with growing momentum with enterprise customers.Relative to our expectations, subscriptions were slightly light but merchant solutions was strong. First-quarter subscription revenue was $620 million, up 21% year over year, and merchant solutions were $1.74 billion, up 29% year over year. GMV grew 23% year over year to $74.8 billion.
Key Morningstar Metrics for Shopify
The bottom line: We’ve cut our fair value estimate to C$167 per share based solely on changing exchange rates. While our Very High Uncertainty Rating acknowledges macro and tariff uncertainty, we see shares as attractive.
We continue to believe the impact from tariffs will be manageable. Cross-border GMV was 15% of total GMV, while just 1% is related to imports from China.
Coming up: We see the second-quarter outlook as mixed, with in-line revenues and slightly light profitability. Total revenue is expected to grow in the mid-20% year over year, while gross profit should grow in the high-teens year over year, with operating expenses of 39% to 40% of revenue.
Shopify noted no changes in consumer behavior and that strength continued through April and into March. The firm is seeing no price increases thus far.
The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.
