Key Morningstar Metrics for Tesla
Tesla Stock Update
The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association reported Tesla’s sales were down nearly 50% in April in the European Union, United Kingdom, and European Free Trade Association countries combined. Tesla shares were up 3% on broader market optimism following a US tariff delay on EU imports.
Why it matters: In April, Tesla’s sales declined in its three key markets of the US, China, and Europe. This follows a 13% year-over-year deliveries decline in the first quarter. The fall in April sales confirms our view that Tesla will likely see deliveries decline in the second quarter.
Lower deliveries reduce Tesla’s total addressable market for its ancillary products and services, which include autonomous driving subscription software, charging, and insurance in a select number of US states.
The bottom line: For now, we maintain our USD 250 fair value estimate for narrow-moat Tesla. While we expect second-quarter deliveries will decline, a double-digit drop would put at risk our full-year forecast for Tesla to see only a low-single-digit decline.
At current prices, we view Tesla shares as overvalued, with the stock trading around 40% above our fair value estimate and in 2-star territory. In our view, the current share price reflects a lot of optimism surrounding the company’s ability to launch its robotaxi product.
Coming up: Tesla plans to begin testing its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, next month. Management aims to launch the service to customers next year. However, we think the service will likely be delayed until 2028, as we do not think the software will be ready by management’s timeline
The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.
