As the summer rally sputters, top Wall Street analysts expect new lows for stocks.
Why it matters: The S&P 500 is already on track for its worst year since 2008, but these analysts suggest things may get much worse.
- The S&P 500 is already down 16.5% in 2022.
- The Nasdaq is down nearly 25%.
Context: Technically, the S&P 500 has been in a bear market since its Jan. 3 peak of 4,797, after which it fell nearly 24% before seeming to hit bottom in June and rebounding.
What they’re saying: “We do not think the bear market is over,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note this week.
- The analysts think the S&P — currently hovering around 3,980 — likely falls at least another 15%, to 3,400, during the fourth quarter.
- The index could even collapse by 25%, falling to 3,000, if the economy slips into a recession, they added.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs stock market analysts called the June to August rally, in which the S&P rose more than 17%, a “bear market rally,” in a note published yesterday.
- “We expect further weakness and bumpy markets before a decisive trough is established,” they wrote.
The bottom line: You might want to start averting your eyes from the old 401(k) statement again.