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For crypto followers, bitcoin breaking the USD 100,000 barrier was a key moment. But so far, the oldest and most established cryptocurrency has been unable to hold steady above that level.
Since early this April, despite ongoing uncertainty over tariffs that roiled equity markets, bitcoin has seen a relatively steady climb. On May 12, when the United States reached an agreement with China, putting a 90-day hold on the tariffs that had markets in a tailspin, bitcoin shot to a three-month high.
That bullish momentum continued last month. Bitcoin reached a new all-time high, getting within touching distance of USD 112,000 on May 22. That was a sharp turnaround from the USD 75,000 it dropped to after US President Donald Trump made his sweeping tariff announcements at the start of April. But the cryptocurrency has since fallen back and is trading at around USD 108,000.
Can Bitcoin Stay Above USD 100,000?
According to CoinShare head of research James Butterfill, the USD 100,000 resistance level is convincingly broken, from a technical analysis standpoint. “Bitcoin has pushed past its 200-, 50-, and 30-day moving averages, and has significantly outperformed all other asset classes,” he says.
However, Adrian Fritz, head of research at 21 Shares, believes the USD 100,000 level “isn’t yet fully validated as firm support.” He explains: “While the breakout confirmed bullish momentum and market strength, it remains a battleground in the near term, particularly under the influence of broader macroeconomic uncertainty.”
In trading, resistance is a price level where a rising asset will face selling pressure. It is sometimes described as a “ceiling,” whereas a support level (where new buyers come in to support prices) is seen as a “floor.” Bitcoin took a long time to break through USD 100,000, with USD 60,000 acting as a key resistance level in the asset’s volatile history.
Dovile Silenskyte, director of digital assets research at WisdomTree, thinks USD 100,000 “was always more of a psychological milestone than a technical barrier, and the market has decisively moved beyond it.” The real test was in investor behavior. Would this milestone trigger widespread profit-taking? So far, the answer appears to be no. “Rather than acting as a ceiling, USD 100,000 now looks increasingly like a new support level,” she says.
Is Bitcoin Still Speculative or a Strategic Asset?
Crypto bulls have long argued that bitcoin may eventually serve as a store of value and a hedge against expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. Adding weight to that argument, more institutions have been allocating a larger share of their portfolios to crypto investments. On the policy front, five US states have enacted new bitcoin laws, including Texas, which has established a long-awaited state bitcoin reserve.
“Physical ETPs continue to attract strong inflows—nearly USD 5 billion in April—signaling continued institutional acceptance,” says Silenskyte. “For institutions, this is not just about price speculation. It is a calculated move to strategically position portfolios amid an environment defined by monetary erosion and fiscal overreach.”
According to Silenskyte, beyond strong institutional demand, macro tailwinds and supply side pressure were the key drivers behind bitcoin’s latest rally. “Renewed expectations of US rate cuts, persistent inflation concerns, and rising fiscal stress have strengthened bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against monetary instability and long-term sovereign risk,” she says. Moreover, the most recent bitcoin halving in April 2024 has ”tighten[ed] supply at a time when demand is rising. This imbalance is driving upward price momentum.”
Is Bitcoin a New Safe Haven?
“This latest rally was largely sparked by macro dislocation,” says Fritz. “The US suffered a weak 20-year Treasury auction, and Moody’s downgraded the nation’s credit outlook, underscoring growing sovereign risk. At the same time, global long-end bond yields have ballooned across developed economies, reflecting inflation concerns, debt sustainability fears, and fractured fiscal outlooks.
“While some feared this environment might lead to short-term selling pressure, what actually followed was a surge in demand for hard assets,” Fritz explains. “Bitcoin rallied in tandem with gold, reinforcing its emerging role as a non-sovereign store of value during times of trust erosion.”
Bitcoin Faces Regulatory Risk and Liquidity Shocks
Going forward, continued uncertainty around US politics and tariffs is likely to remain a key theme.
“The pushback from the New York courts does not mark the end of the tariff-related issues, and the full economic impact is still unclear,” says Butterfill. “This uncertainty is expected to fuel ongoing market volatility and encourage a longer-term shift toward looser monetary policy.”
Looking ahead, Fritz forecasts that we may see bitcoin’s price stabilize at around the USD 100,000—USD 110,000 mark in the short term, barring new market shocks. However, even without any shocks, risks persist. “The macro landscape is fragile, with tariff disputes, ballooning global debt, and rising yields posing threats,” he says. “A sharp deterioration could unsettle most ‘risk-on’ assets. There’s also the risk of major BTC-holding firms needing to liquidate under stress.”
According to Butterfill, the main short-term risk is a resurgence in inflation, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. “Another concern is the possibility of a sharp reversal in the currently favorable political stance toward digital assets in the US.”
The most significant wild card appears to be an unexpectedly hostile policy stance. “While the regulatory tide has been turning more constructive in key markets, the risk of abrupt, politically motivated action could create near-term volatility and erode institutional confidence,” says Silenskyte.
Another concern is that during periods of tightening liquidity and risk aversion, bitcoin trades in line with other risk assets. “Should central banks pivot more hawkishly than expected [pause rate cuts or raise rates], especially in response to sticky inflation or financial instability, a sudden contraction in global risk appetite could trigger sharp corrections [in crypto markets],” Silenskyte adds.
The author or authors do own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.